Alberta Election

[Insane Power Pilot]

EDMONTON -- Set against a backdrop of rocketing energy revenues and billion-dollar surpluses, Alberta Premier Ralph Klein dropped the election writ Monday to launch what he has promised will be his swan song campaign.

Outside the hotel where Klein was to make the official announcement, a large billboard urged voters to re-elect the Progressive Conservatives on Nov. 22.

The Progressive Conservatives come armed with a campaign war chest reported to boast $4 million and with poll numbers that suggest they’re well on their way to winning a 10th consecutive mandate.

The party, which has been in power for 33 years, won 74 candidates in the 83-seat legislature in 2001 and captured just under two-thirds of the popular vote.

In 2004, Klein is going against two fresh faces.

The Liberals are now led by Kevin Taft, an Edmonton member of the legislature and former government researcher and author of books criticizing Alberta government policy.

The Liberals elected seven members in 2001 but have struggled this time around to field a full slate of candidates. They are also saddled with a debt of close to $1 million.

The NDP is led by Brian Mason, a former bus driver and Edmonton city councillor who was acclaimed last month. The party won two seats in 2001 and is using bank loans to help finance its campaign this time around.

Both parties are expected to focus on ridings in Edmonton as their best bets to win seats.

Klein, who became premier in 1992, is seeking a fourth mandate. The 61-year-old former TV reporter has never tasted defeat. He has not lost a campaign or a leadership vote dating back to his days as Calgary’s mayor in the 1980s.

He has said that if elected, he will serve his full term and then step aside.

This will be the place to post all the happenings, key issues, and your predictions for the Alberta election. The PC campaign will be focused on money and the balanced budget (a "stay the course" campaign), whereas the Liberal and NDP campaigns will charge that prosperity has come at the expense of overcrowded classrooms, decayed infrastructure, and gas, electricity and insurance prices which are unconscionably high.

Vote in the poll even if you live outside of Alberta. I want to know what everyone thinks!

[Lil Lightnin]

I'm pretty torn right now.
I honestly don't know where my vote is going to go.
I believe that the PC's are the best party to look out for Alberta's interests, but there are obviously reasons where you wouldn't want to consider Ralph for premier. The environment being high on MY list (that's right...I'm a right wing hippy).

[Lola]

I plan on voting ABK-anyone but Klein. :) I'll probably vote for the NDP, but I think Klein will probably make it in again.

[etowncadet]

Frig, it's my first election I can vote in, and I'm in the middle of moving houses. My home right now is in Edmonton Glenora, a hotly contested area. It's chock full of great candidates, including many left-leaning parties, of which I am more interested in rather than Mr.-Klien-I-Spend-Surplus-Dollars-Going-On-Trade-Missions-Rather-Than-Lower-Education-Costs-Yet-I-Still-Say-Kids-Are-An-Important-Link-To-The-Future. However, my new constituency consists of two choices: The current speaker of the legislature (PC), and the Alberta Alliance (right-wing, again). :eek: . My worst fear! And the PC candidate is most likely going to win again by a landslide! My parents have already changed addresses, but I think I'm going to wait until the last piece of furniture leaves my current house before I change my address. I just hope that date is after the election.

[Loyal Edmonton]

haha it WILL be klein by a landslide again!!

dont let anyone else tell you different!

[Caz]

SoCreds are a party here that used to rule the land waaaaaaaaaay back when... for a tenure as long as the PCs have had now (33 years).

-R.

[Insane Power Pilot]

SoCreds are a party here that used to rule the land waaaaaaaaaay back when... for a tenure as long as the PCs have had now (33 years).

In fact, they were the last party to form the government before the PCs took over! Their platform and party principles differ very little from the PCs as well.

http://www.socialcredit.com/

Interesting fact: Only 4 political parties have ever formed the government of Alberta and their terms were all successive: Liberals 1905-1921; United Farmers of Alberta 1921-1935; Social Credit 1935-1971; and Progressive Conservative 1971-Present. Once Albertans find a party that they like, they tend to hold onto it for a very long time!

[TREYDAGUNNER]

all I can say is that The other provinces should take cues from Alberta's Provincial mandates... and as for the whole not spending surplus dollars where some people would like them to... perhaps consider the fact that the Federal Government takes a HUGE cut of Alberta's surplus and put it into other provinces like Ontario, NS, and NB to help shovel them out of debt. People complain about the fact that you have to pay for health care in alberta... but what about the fact that there is absolutely NO Provincial Tax. That more than makes up for the (guess) 44 bucks a month you pay in helth care. And I don't know about anyone else... but I had no problems in school except for my own attendance. (I went to school in calgary)

That's my humble opinion

[Insane Power Pilot]

While I'm being "Albertacentric", the leaders debate was tonight. Mason, Taft, and Klein argued and berated each other over health care and health premiums, post-secondary education, infrastructure in municipalities, oil revenues, BSE, same-sex marriage, deregulation, auto insurance, and more.

Did anyone else watch it? I couldn't pick out a clear winner...I only noticed that Mason was a non-factor throughout.

[The Blue Tory]

think it will be a 70% landslide victory, with Calgary going Tory blue as always

[Insane Power Pilot]

70% of the seats or 70% of the vote?

[Insane Power Pilot]

4 days until the election. Just some poll numbers for ya...Global TV Poll done by Cameron Strategy, considered accurate 19 times out of 20, with a margin of error of 5.3%.

Sample Size 900

Alberta:
PC: 41%
LB 18%
NDP 10%
AA 8%
Greens 5%
Social Credit 1%
Others 3%
UNDECIDED 13%

Edmonton:
PC 35%
Lib 23%
NDP 17%
AA 6%
UNDECIDED 19%

If these numbers are right, Edmonton ridings Calder, Glenora, Ellerslie, Millwoods, Beverly-Clareview, and maybe even Decore could go tory. But I'm skeptical.

[Insane Power Pilot]

Election is being held today. I've cast my vote. I'll be back later tonight with results, and then I promise I'll let this thread die. :p

[CKeenan]

lol okay... good thing cause politics really suck. Klein will probably cry if he doens't win! ;) jk

[The Blue Tory]

Alberta is Tory Country... no way, I predict a 75% landslide majority

[Loyal Edmonton]

Alberta is Tory Country... no way, I predict a 75% landslide majority

yep it will be tory as always

[The Blue Tory]

What I find interesting about this election, is that there is senate election as well

[The Blue Tory]

CBC has just declared at 20:35 MT (22:35 EST) Ralph Klien's PC Party has WON ANOTHER MAJORITY GOVERNMENT!!!

[Insane Power Pilot]

Thus far, the PC's have won 16 seats and the Liberals have won 1 seat. The PC's lead in 38 constituencies, the Liberals 13, the NDP 3 and the Alberta Alliance 1.

[Loyal Edmonton]

Thus far, the PC's have won 16 seats and the Liberals have won 1 seat. The PC's lead in 38 constituencies, the Liberals 13, the NDP 3 and the Alberta Alliance 1.

yep just as i predicted 75 percent. Damn edmontonians

[Insane Power Pilot]

yep just as i predicted 75 percent. Damn edmontonians

Hey, don't blame the voters...I don't want to be a hypocrite since that's what I told everyone in the US election thread! Now, everyone knows I bleed Tory blue, but the opposition parties gave us plenty of reasons not to vote for the Tories (not that I would ever have the gall to vote against the Alberta PCs, I'm just saying I know exactly why this is happening. In fact, the very blatant favouritism displayed toward Calgary could very well cost me my job, so this just goes to show how dedicated I am ;)) But if Edmontonians think they were getting screwed in the last 4 years...to borrow a line from Al Jolson, "You ain't seen nothin' yet!"

Updated results:

PC: 42 (enough for a majority) (leading in 21)
Lib: 6 (leading in 9)
NDP: 4 (leading in 1)

Thus, the NDP has doubled its 2001 total while the Libs are 1 away from matching theirs. They've also elected a Liberal MLA in Calgary, as David Swann beat PC incumbent Mark Hlady. Unbelieveable...

My home riding of Edmonton-Riverview has re-elected (quite soundly, I might add) Liberal leader Kevin Taft. Not who I voted for obviously, but nonetheless, congratulations to Dr. Taft. But we're gonna get you in 4 years. :p

[The Blue Tory]

Alberta is Tory Country... no way, I predict a 75% landslide majority
yep I was right 75%

[Insane Power Pilot]

with Calgary going Tory blue as always

Yeah, well now they have 3 Liberal MLA's with possibly a 4th on the way! :eek: And who says democracy in Calgary has gone stale? I need to go lie down. And just before I leave:

PC: 56 (leading 5)
Lib: 14 (doubling their 2001 total) (leading 3)
NDP: 4 (leading 0)
AA: 0 (leading 1)

Now this could make the leadership race for the PC in 2008 that much more important. Possible future Premiers of the province (I think) include Dave Hancock (if he wins tonight), Shirley McLellan, Richard Magnus, maybe Ken Kowalski, but he's too old I think. Or maybe a new face could win it, who knows.

[Lola]

Well, I'm not happy, but not surprised with the results. However, the MLA I voted for did get in, so that is a bright spot. We love you Pannu! ;) I'm also happy that the NDPs managed to increase their seats.
A Liberal MLA in Calgary...wow. Who would have thought?

[The Blue Tory]

UGH

WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO CALGARY!!! I blame it on the Alliance...

LONG LIVE KING RALPH!!!

[Lola]

In fact, the very blatant favouritism displayed toward Calgary could very well cost me my job.

But if Edmontonians think they were getting screwed in the last 4 years...

About your first point-and I say this in a nice tone, seriously- if you like Calgary so much, why aren't you there?

And about your second point; one example comes to mind- Calgary was promised 7 new schools recently, and Edmonton none. If that's not screwing a city over, I don't know what is. :)

[Insane Power Pilot]

Well, I'm not happy, but not surprised with the results. However, the MLA I voted for did get in, so that is a bright spot. We love you Pannu! ;) I'm also happy that the NDPs managed to increase their seats.


Sorry, one more, then bed. I just thought I'd point out how poor people tend to vote for the NDP. The average household income in Edmonton-Strathcona is $46,394 and when you leave the crazies in Whyte Ave. behind and cross 109 St. toward greener pastures (Edmonton-Riverview) the average household income is $68,936. But I attribute Kevin Taft's election to the large amount of old people and dirt poor university students living here. Sorry, I just had to poke fun at my neighbours and remind them that, yes, the grass is greener on the other side. :p :p :p

PC: 58 (leading 2)
Lib: 14 (leading 4)
NDP: 4 (leading 0)
AA: 0 (leading 1)

[Insane Power Pilot]

About your first point-and I say this in a nice tone, seriously- if you like Calgary so much, why aren't you there?

Ugh. Don't even joke about that. I hate Calgary and would not live in that city for all the rice in China. I bailed out of Southern Alberta as fast as I could after I turned 18 and I am a very dedicated Oilers, Esks, Road Runners, and Golden Bears fan! I don't know what I said to give you that impression. Whatever it was, I take it back! :eek: :p

[Lola]

Whoops! It was the favortism remark you made; I just took it the wrong way. :eek: I'm glad you like Edmonton!

You could be right about what kind of people vote for the NDP... but I know for me and other people it's not just about our financial situation, it's more about their liberal views on other issues.

[handisnak]

In terms of popular vote, the Libs are right behind the Tories. Furthermore, Klien has always been more popular than his party. Don't be surprised by a change of government come next election.

[The Blue Tory]

In terms of popular vote, the Libs are right behind the Tories. Furthermore, Klien has always been more popular than his party. Don't be surprised by a change of government come next election.
I don't think so

[Insane Power Pilot]

In terms of popular vote, the Libs are right behind the Tories. Furthermore, Klien has always been more popular than his party. Don't be surprised by a change of government come next election.

All biases aside, I'm afraid I'll have to disagree with you as well. The PC's coasted through this election on fumes, they ran the worst campaign I have ever seen, and they still win a 61-seat majority (Reporters dubbed it "Kleinfeld: The campaign about nothing :D). The other thing is it's way too early to make predictions for the next election, as we've yet to see what the PC's will do with the surplus, how effective the larger opposition parties will be, and the effect the Alberta Alliance will have on the PCs and the extent to which they'll work against the PC's in the legislature. For the PC's to win the next election, they'll have to fix the infrastructure and put new money into education, essentially taking away the Liberal Party's entire campaign.

[handisnak]

All biases aside, I'm afraid I'll have to disagree with you as well. The PC's coasted through this election on fumes, they ran the worst campaign I have ever seen, and they still win a 61-seat majority (Reporters dubbed it "Kleinfeld: The campaign about nothing :D). The other thing is it's way too early to make predictions for the next election, as we've yet to see what the PC's will do with the surplus, how effective the larger opposition parties will be, and the effect the Alberta Alliance will have on the PCs and the extent to which they'll work against the PC's in the legislature. For the PC's to win the next election, they'll have to fix the infrastructure and put new money into education, essentially taking away the Liberal Party's entire campaign.

You're working on the assumption that staying quiet during an election is a bad thing. In fact, the Doer Government did the same thing in Manitoba and it worked very well. Incumbents always try and avoid public debate unless the polls are unfavourable. Did you seen how close the popular vote was?

Also, you've done nothing to show that the PCs without Klein will do well. In Canadian politics, the examples of parties falling out of power alongside the departure of a popular leader are unending: the Libs in 84, the PCs in 93, almost the Libs in 04, etc etc etc.

[Lil Lightnin]

I'm not disputing the fact that Klein is outragously popular here, and that the conservatives will most likely lose support when he leaves, I hardly doubt it'll be enough to oust the current government.
You can't see into the future, but the last 30 years has been prodominately PC in Alberta, and I don't think the Liberals won more than 2 or 3 seats outside any major city.

[The Blue Tory]

I'm not disputing the fact that Klein is outragously popular here, and that the conservatives will most likely lose support when he leaves, I hardly doubt it'll be enough to oust the current government.
You can't see into the future, but the last 30 years has been prodominately PC in Alberta, and I don't think the Liberals won more than 2 or 3 seats outside any major city.
I think the PC party will gain support after Klein, considering how he's been hovering around the centre lately

[Lil Lightnin]

It's hard to say...despite the fact the conservatives are LOSING some support, I think the Liberals are gaining ground, not just because the PC party is doing poorly.

[yipman]

Also, you've done nothing to show that the PCs without Klein will do well. In Canadian politics, the examples of parties falling out of power alongside the departure of a popular leader are unending: the Libs in 84, the PCs in 93, almost the Libs in 04, etc etc etc.

There is one huge reason that shows that the PCs will still be fine without Klein. In rural Alberta, the PCs tend to be the only choice for the voters, as the policies of the Liberals and NDPs tend to be seen as too radical for them. With about half the ridings in the province outside of Edmonton and Calgary, it's no wonder why they continue to get the majority governments for so long. So, as long as they get half the seats between Edmonton and Calgary, they are very safe.

The only way they could lose is if the Alberta Alliance continues to gain popularity and overtake the PCs in at least half the rural ridings. Then some sort of splitting in the urban areas would also have to happen. So, unless there is some huge mistake the PCs make (very unlikely) or oil prices fall dramatically, I don't really expect to see a change in government anytime soon.

[Insane Power Pilot]

I'm not disputing the fact that Klein is outragously popular here, and that the conservatives will most likely lose support when he leaves, I hardly doubt it'll be enough to oust the current government.
You can't see into the future, but the last 30 years has been prodominately PC in Alberta,

That's right. Just look at the other two PC party leaders:

Peter Lougheed (hugely popular): Steps down in 1985; Getty wins 61 seat majority in 1986.
Don Getty (hugely unpopular): Steps down in 1992; Klein wins 51 seat majority in 1993.

They will lose seats, but it won't be enough. The current Liberal and NDP parties don't do enough to pander to the rural voters.

[Insane Power Pilot]

I think the PC party will gain support after Klein, considering how he's been hovering around the centre lately

This could also be the case, depending on who is elected. I talked to a few non-PC voters who said they would consider voting PC if they had a different leader. They see Klein as a lazy, alcoholic wife-beater who won't ride commercial airlines because he can't smoke on them.

Oh yeah, by the way, the cabinet's been named. Some pretty big changed. Check it out. (http://www.canada.com/edmonton/edmontonjournal/news/albertavotes/story.html?id=6aecf463-682d-46ad-bb3c-9a09e8fdd02e)